14 Sept 2016

The world of driverless cars

When driverless technology starts maturing and is proven to be safe, the cars will not require a manual override. So steering wheel will be taken out. The car will essentially have a navigation screen in which you fill the destination coordinates, choose the path, and press 'Go'.

Urged by regulators and governments, car companies will leverage this technology to reduce pollution, reduce energy consumption, and reduce road congestion. The cars will no longer look like the present day integrated vehicles with two seats in front and typically at least two seats in back (except in few high end luxury cars). The idea will be that if one person is travelling, why does he need to carry along an empty compartment! So the design of future will be modular. You would have a driving unit which will have one seat and will attach as many additional passenger units as required. Various flexible layouts of modular units will be possible depending upon how many units are travelling. So if only two people are travelling you can either connect the units side by side or front to back. If three people are travelling, you can either connect the units linearly back to back or like a current three wheeler with one unit in the front and two in the back. The software will automatically detect the layout and align the transmission and coordination between wheels of various units accordingly. The most visible impact of the modular design will be that it will significantly reduce traffic congestion.

Cars will be electric and will run on batteries. Batteries will be chargeable by either electric or solar power. You will not need a new extensive infrastructure of charging stations to support your hybrid driverless car. Batteries will be light and detachable. You will charge them at home by plugging into one of the sockets. There will also be a small inbuilt battery to store solar power in the interest of further fuel economy, energy conservation and environmental protection. The cars will also have an emergency mode of running directly on solar power though with significantly reduced performance. You will usually have spare battery banks like you have for mobile phones today. They will be working on various futuristic technologies like controlled fission of atoms and using water or air as a fuel. Perhaps you will see some trial runs of these technologies in your lifespan.

Driverless driving will improve inter-vehicle coordination on the road substantially so accidents will be rare and car bodies will mostly be scratch free. Reduced risk of damage will encourage higher borrowing of passenger units or even driver units from your neighbour, friend, or relative. If your friend lives some distance away from your home the driving unit can potentially autonomously go and return the passenger unit to the owner and then come back home itself. The cars will have embedded security technology to prevent theft when the car is travelling without you.

Insurance premiums will reduce significantly because of reduced risk of vehicular damage. To compensate the per unit realisation (i.e., premiums per policy), insurance companies will count on higher volumes (units sold) as cheaper technology becomes accessible to lower income groups also either through private ownership or through taxi services.

Various fleet management companies will operate driverless taxies and use a fleet management software commercially available from leading software companies. This software will act as an interface between various driving units and will help them talk to each other. If you booked a pick up for two people then the nearby driving unit accepting your request will either have the second unit on itself or will coordinate with another driving unit nearby which has a spare passenger unit. If no other nearby unit has a spare passenger unit then this driving unit will request additional passenger unit from the closest stand. Another driving unit will directly come to deliver it to your place while your booked driving unit comes to you from another direction around the same time. The time taken for such coordination will reflect in your pre-boarding waiting period for which you will of course not be charged. In case the driving unit that accepts your request has an extra passenger unit which is not required for your trip, it can either hand it over to another passing driving unit which may need it or leave it at the closest stand on the way either before or after you board.

For those who enjoy driving for pleasure, expensive convertibles will be available from a few car companies. They will look more like present day's integrated vehicles with multiple seats but will come with advanced automation and networking features. They will have both manual and driverless modes of operation. However, if you flout traffic rules intentionally or unintentionally, the traffic police's GPS driven network monitoring software will detect you and take appropriate action. You will not only be penalised for disturbing traffic but also be sued by insurance companies for any damage to other vehicles.

The changes will be easier for developed countries to adopt. However, developing countries will need to completely overhaul their traffic rules education and enforcement system to enable the driverless cars to drive without running over careless pedestrians or ramming into manual drivers with no knowledge of traffic rules. This will take time. For a while the divide between developed and developing countries will increase.

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